Baseball...numbers, stories and analysis

1981

            As part of my thought process, and re-examining some awards that may have gone to the wrong players, I went back to the 1981 season.

            It was a tumultuous season to say the least. Those who are old enough to remember it as the 'strike season', which was halted in mid year, and started up again. The season was played in two halves, with the standings frozen at the time of the work stoppage, and the first place teams were dubbed the First Half pennant winners. The resumption of play then led to the awarding of Second Half pennant winners.

            The Cincinnati Reds, that year, had the misfortune of winding up with the best overall record in baseball, but didn't win either of the pennants, and were shut out of post-season play.

            The Dodgers, who eventually beat the Yankees in the World Series, were the team everyone was watching. Led by a left-handed Mexican rookie pitcher named Fernando Valenzuela. He was the hottest ticket in baseball, and drew record crowds whenever and wherever he pitched. The nation was consumed by Fernando-mania.

            He was awarded the Rookie of the Year AND the Cy Young Award for the National League that season.

            I have no qualms about the Rookie of the Year. The Cy Young Award, however, is a different story.

            In looking at the pitcher who received votes for the Cy Young (only 5!) we have the following:

Name	W	L	Sv	ERA
F. Valenzuela	13	7	0	2.48
T. Seaver	14	2	0	2.54
S. Carlton	13	4	0	2.42
N. Ryan	11	5	0	1.69
B. Sutter	3	5	25	2.62

            (note: 4 Hall of Famers + Fernando)

            Just for kicks, I added the leaders in ERA (Earned Run Average) and

WAR (Wins Against Replacement, the hot stat amongst Sabermetricians)

Name	W	L	Sv	ERA
J. Reuss	10	4	0	2.30
B. Knepper	9	5	0	2.18
D. Alexander	11	7	0	2.89
B. Hooton	11	6	0	2.28
V. Blue	8	6	0	2.45
R. Camp	9	3	17	1.78
E. Solomon	8	6	1	3.12
B. Gullickson	7	9	0	2.80

            Good to see Rick Camp on the list. He was a pretty good closer (or stopper as they began calling them in his day) . To me, however, he will always be the guy that homered at 3AM against the Mets in Atlanta in July of 1985.

            Anyway, as I was thinking...being a Mets fan, I always maintained that Tom Seaver really should have won his fourth Cy Young Award in 1981, but he didn't...nor did he deserve it.

            As happens with statistics and research, sometimes one is able to use numbers as a way to end an argument, or solve a problem. And sometimes, like layers of an onion, you delve in deeper and deeper and discover something else entirely. Or have to switch gears.

            Using my formula,  I applied that aforementioned players' statistics and calculated the number. Then, lo and behold, I was wrong. Here are the results:

name	x
Nolan Ryan	2.03571
Tom Seaver	1.97817
Steve Carlton	1.85987
Fernando Valenzuela	1.82966
Burt Hooton	1.80910
Rick Camp	1.77259
Jerry Reuss	1.77258
Bob Knepper	1.74199
Don Sutton	1.73851

Then, when you compare that x number to the rest of their teams, we get this:

name	Vs. TEAM
Steve Carlton	1.8399
Tom Seaver	1.6687
Rick Camp	1.6523
Nolan Ryan	1.3918
Vida Blue	1.3813
Eddie Solomon	1.3252
Fernando Valenzuela	1.3312
Burt Hooton	1.3163
Jerry Reuss	1.2897
Doyle Alexander	1.2808
Bob Knepper	1.1910
Don Sutton	1.1889
Bruce Sutter	1.1602

            Carlton had the advantage of being a very good pitcher on a very bad pitching team. Note that the Phillies did win the 1st half championship, losing to the Expos in the first ever National League Eastern Division Championship Series. And that Mike Schmidt was voted the Most Valuable Player in the NL that year.

           

Now, let's compare to the rest of the league...

name	Vs NL
Nolan Ryan	1.8834
Tom Seaver	1.7819
Steve Carlton	1.6753
Fernando Valenzuela	1.6481
Burt Hooton	1.6296
Rick Camp	1.59671
Jerry Reuss	1.59670
Bob Knepper	1.5692
Don Sutton	1.5660
Vida Blue	1.5147
Doyle Alexander	1.4026

            Ryan was on a very strong pitching team, as proven by 3 pitchers on this top ten list, but that being said, he was still the strongest performer on the staff.

            So, in conclusion, it appears that Fernando was not totally deserving of the Cy Young Award in 1981. In reality, it should have been The Ryan Express's first Cy Young.